Photo by Breno Assis on Unsplash

Let’s break down the latest insights on U.S. home prices as of May 2024, with a focus on the data through March 2024 and forecasts extending to March 2025:

Overview:

  • Annual Growth: Home prices, including distressed sales, saw a 5.3% increase in March 2024 compared to the same month in 2023.
  • Monthly Growth: There was a 1.2% rise in home prices in March 2024 from the previous month, February 2024.

Forecasts:

  • Short-Term: Prices are expected to grow by 0.8% from March to April 2024.
  • Long-Term: A 3.7% year-over-year increase is projected from March 2024 to March 2025.

Regional Analysis:

  • The Northeastern states lead the charge with March’s highest annual home price growth.
  • This trend is driven by migration to suburban areas of major cities and regions with higher household incomes.
  • States like Florida and Texas are experiencing slower growth due to lagging inventory compared to the Northeast.

Metro-Level Growth:

  • Cities like Camden, Hartford, Syracuse, Worcester, Newark, Allentown, and Rochester are among the top appreciating housing markets.
  • California metros Anaheim, San Jose, and Miami, Florida, also feature in the top 10 for appreciation.

Market Observations:

  • Despite high mortgage rates and affordability challenges, home prices continue to rise.
  • The market is experiencing a supply-and-demand mismatch, with continued interest from higher-budget households.

National and State Maps:

  • No states reported declining home prices year over year as of March 2024.
  • New Jersey, South Dakota, and New Hampshire saw the most significant increases.

Risk Assessment:

  • The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator suggests that areas like Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, and others are at a high risk of home price declines in the coming year.

These insights provide a comprehensive overview of current trends and future projections for those interested in the housing market. Understanding these patterns is crucial for making informed decisions in real estate. Market conditions can change, so staying updated with the latest data is essential.